Currently in my 3rd year of Economics honours , we are studying Indian Economics and History, at first sight the paper seemed to be boring and a lot of theory to learn, but going through the readings, I actually found the subject to be quiet interesting. Tim Dyson wrote a paper on “India’s Demographic Transition and its Consequences for development”. The predictions or we can say conclusion for India 2026 was quiet surprising. Tim Dyson talked about urbanization and demographic Transition. He wrote about “Future challenges due to demographic transition”.
Firstly he said that India’s population due to Demographic Transition will continue to increase and therefore there will be further increase in level of urbanization and population continue to age. Also India’s population will exceed that of China by 2050. Most of the increase in population will be observed in Northern states of India like Bihar, UP and M. Talking about the fertility rate, by 2026 total fertility rate will be 2 birth per women, which is followed by women marrying at young age and quick birth in succession and after that they may have sterilization in their reproductive span. Result of which will be seen in increase participation of women in the workforce by 2026. Also Economic growth of the country is likely to increase due to decrease in the proportion of dependent population. Education quality in schools will expected to improve due to decrease in dependent population, also Demographic Transition lead to improvement in administrative structure of the country as by 2026 more decentralization of government can be observed. With the pros comes the cons that is by 2026 India will face a double burden of diseases due to reason of increase in population density and Demographic Transition will also have an adverse impact on environment. also Demographic Transition lead to improvement in administrative structure of the country as by 2026 more decentralization of government can be observed.
These changes will have a drastic affect on our economy and we should be prepared for the challenges to come and start being more systematic, so as to ease the functioning of the country’s economy.