Interval Estimates

It is the use of sample data to calculate an interval of possible (or probable) values of an unknown population parameter, in contrast to point estimation, which is a single number.

The most prevalent forms of interval estimation are:

  • confidence intervals (a frequentist method); and
  • credible intervals (a Bayesian method).

Other common approaches to interval estimation, which are encompassed by statistical theory, are:

  • Tolerance intervals
  • Prediction intervals – used mainly in Regression Analysis
  • Likelihood intervals

Interval estimation, in statistics, the evaluation of a parameter—for example, the mean (average)—of a population by computing an interval, or range of values, within which the parameter is most likely to be located. Intervals are commonly chosen such that the parameter falls within with a 95 or 99 percent probability, called the confidence coefficient. Hence, the intervals are called confidence intervals; the end points of such an interval are called upper and lower confidence limits.

The interval containing a population parameter is established by calculating that statistic from values measured on a random sample taken from the population and by applying the knowledge (derived from probability theory) of the fidelity with which the properties of a sample represent those of the entire population.

The probability tells what percentage of the time the assignment of the interval will be correct but not what the chances are that it is true for any given sample. Of the intervals computed from many samples, a certain percentage will contain the true value of the parameter being sought.

Interval Issues

The scientific problems associated with interval estimation may be summarised as follows:

  • When interval estimates are reported, they should have a commonly held interpretation in the scientific community and more widely. In this regard, credible intervals are held to be most readily understood by the general public. Interval estimates derived from fuzzy logic have much more application-specific meanings.
  • For commonly occurring situations there should be sets of standard procedures that can be used, subject to the checking and validity of any required assumptions. This applies for both confidence intervals and credible intervals.
  • For more novel situations there should be guidance on how interval estimates can be formulated. In this regard confidence intervals and credible intervals have a similar standing but there are differences:
    • credible intervals can readily deal with prior information, while confidence intervals cannot.
    • confidence intervals are more flexible and can be used practically in more situations than credible intervals: one area where credible intervals suffer in comparison is in dealing with non-parametric models.

There should be ways of testing the performance of interval estimation procedures. This arises because many such procedures involve approximations of various kinds and there is a need to check that the actual performance of a procedure is close to what is claimed. The use of stochastic simulations makes this is straightforward in the case of confidence intervals, but it is somewhat more problematic for credible intervals where prior information needs to taken properly into account. Checking of credible intervals can be done for situations representing no-prior-information but the check involves checking the long-run frequency properties of the procedures.

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